BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering that is a free card and that I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They have a Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I won my first chair into it a couple weeks back and I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $25k decoration, then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really are no money game locks this week for me but I went with Yana since I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I like the ground she brings to the table. I also think she wins the fight and I think she will be the fighter going for takedowns. I really don’t know how high her ceiling is but in money games it doesn’t really matter too much because we don’t have to hit 1st place in a double-up. I would anticipate about 10x from Yana in a choice win and I will take that day in my cash games.
GPP drama of this week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly because there are a lot of scrambles and the grappling improvements really add up. I expect this is a really fun fight, but it should be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I am always looking for no less than 10x from my fighters and also at $8.3k I’d be shocked if Smolka did not get that with a win. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point reduction to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP play here and when he wins I’d anticipate near 100 DK points.
Drama of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a fight that I hope to remain standing, I’ve quite a bit of curiosity in this struggle. I believe it will be an action-packed fight and I think someone gets pumped out. This is likewise the mid-range struggle of this week, so that I feel a KO from guy would have a fantastic chance to put them on the perfect lineup. I like it even more because I’m choosing the underdog to get the knockout and that I expect Millender to function as higher owned fighter. I’ll have this fight in more than half of my lineups, but that I shall probably have at least double the possession on dos Santos over Millender. I think it’s a better GPP fight than it is for cash games, but I believe dos Santos is in play for cash since he’s an underdog and I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, however I’ll have a good amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at the salary and I don’t see that occurring. When he wins a clear 30-27 decision, then he probably scores mid 70’s and in his price tag which will not win anybody a GPP. I really don’t believe he moves for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he can go for takedowns then I do not see him filing Moraes. So, it has to be a KO out of him to cover off that wages and I am not inclined to take that risk with my money. That is why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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